A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, with the team went six without a win, the question was if his displays were a symptom or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. When the in-form star curled home his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
This is a rather hard query to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, even as the positive results have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side registered an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a team which has put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear strangely fragile – yet at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their talisman to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents managed more shots and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
