Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
